Ethanol Production Surges to Record as Demand Improves

Record ethanol production and improving blending demand continue to support corn usage despite rising short-term inventories.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol production surged to a record high in early January, signaling strong operational momentum even as fuel demand and inventories remain seasonally mixed. According to Energy Information Administration data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, ethanol output jumped 8.9 percent for the week ending January 9, climbing to 1.20 million barrels per day — the highest weekly level on record.

Production ran 9.2 percent above the same week last year and nearly 14 percent above the three-year average, reflecting aggressive run rates across much of the industry. The four-week average production rate also moved higher, reaching an annualized pace of 17.32 billion gallons, reinforcing the strength of near-term supply.

Ethanol stocks increased 3.5 percent to 24.5 million barrels, though inventories remain slightly below both year-ago levels and the three-year average. Stock builds occurred in most regions, with the Midwest the only area where inventories declined, suggesting continued strong blending or shipment activity in the core production region.

Demand indicators improved modestly. Gasoline supplied rose 1.6 percent week over week, while refiner and blender ethanol inputs rebounded more than 9 percent and exceeded both last year and the three-year average. Exports also strengthened, climbing to an estimated 119,000 barrels per day, with no ethanol imports reported for more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Record ethanol production and improving blending demand continue to support corn usage despite rising short-term inventories.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Lower oil prices may trim input costs but pressure biofuel demand.
Tight storage could widen basis and limit marketing flexibility.
Cold-driven spikes in gas prices can quickly raise fertilizer and energy costs.
Large carry-in stocks across major crops could limit price recovery in 2026/27 unless demand strengthens or weather-related supply reductions occur.
Stable small business confidence supports rural economies, but lingering cost pressures and uncertainty continue to shape farm-country decision-making.
Ethanol output is improving, but weak domestic demand and export headwinds temper optimism about corn demand. Renewable Fuels Association President & CEO Geoff Cooper discusses the latest developments on Federal approval of year-round E15.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

President Donald Trump signed an executive order this week to accelerate domestic production of phosphorus and glyphosate, signaling that farm input availability is now treated as a national security risk.
The global rice surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
A weaker dollar supports export demand and may strengthen crop prices.
Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.
Federal aid helps, but producers will bear most of the losses. Balance sheets may look stable, but margins remain fragile without policy support.
RFD NEWS Markets Specialist Tony St. James reviews the USDA’s Farms and Land in Farms 2025 Summary.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.