Farm Debt Signals Show Pressure on Operating Loans

Operating debt remains manageable in many areas, but rising non-accrual loans show why careful cash-flow management matters in 2026.

frozen funds usda money farm programs_Photo by ivandanru via Adobe Stock.jpg

Photo by ivandanru via Adobe Stock

Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Farm operating debt remains mostly stable across the South, but late-loan categories are showing pressure after a difficult year for row-crop margins. Charley Martinez with the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture says non-real estate farm loans were 4 percent higher in the fourth quarter of 2025 than a year earlier.

The biggest concern is loan quality. Martinez says non-accrual loans stayed elevated from the previous quarter and were 172 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2024. Loans 90 days or more past due were nearly unchanged from a year earlier.

Loans 30 to 89 days late fell from their first-quarter peak, but Martinez says some of that debt likely moved into the non-accrual category by year-end. That category still remained 35 percent higher than fourth-quarter 2024.

State pressure varied. Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas were above the regional average for total late debt as a share of total loan volume.

Higher crop prices and future ARC and PLC payments may help, but input costs, interest rates, and tight margins keep working capital important.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Operating debt remains manageable in many areas, but rising non-accrual loans show why careful cash-flow management matters in 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.
CoBank’s 2026 Year Ahead Report cites global grain oversupply, easing inflation, rate cuts, and major data center growth that could reshape rural America.
Strong Farm Credit finances help cushion producers, but prolonged low crop margins could strain renewals in 2026.
USDA data confirms that U.S. agriculture remains overwhelmingly family-run despite structural shifts in scale and production, according to a new analystis by Farm Flavor.
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities breaks down the outlook on grain storage and domestic supply chain strength as producers weigh planting decisions with forthcoming federal aid.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Modest rate relief may come late in 2026, but borrowing costs are likely to stay elevated.
Purdue University Professor of Agricultural Economics Dr. Jim Mintert shares a closer look at farmer sentiment and the key issues shaping the agricultural economy in January.
Stronger U.S.-Guatemala trade rules favor dependable, regionally integrated supply chains — rewarding execution and commitment over cost-only sourcing.
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
Shrinking slaughter capacity may delay heifer retention, complicating herd rebuilding plans.
Strong seasonal demand and manageable production growth continue to support poultry markets.