Economists are warning fertilizer prices are not jiving with grain values right now, and the situation is approaching near record levels.
Josh Linville with StoneX says the urea to corn ratio is at 99 bushels per ton right now, and UAN is at 79 bushels per ton. Linville says those statistics are the second worst in history for this time of year.
He cites a number of reasons, including plant maintenance, restrictions on Russian imports, and uncertainty out of major supply regions like Trinidad.
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Transportation access, legal disputes, and fertilizer freight costs will directly influence input pricing and grain movement in 2026.
Fertilizer markets face uncertainty after President Trump raised the possibility of tariffs on Canadian imports, with analysts warning of supply and pricing risks. Josh Linville with StoneX provides a fertilizer industry outlook.
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
Only properly documented, unexhausted fertilizer applied by prior owners may qualify for Section 180 expensing; broader nutrient-based claims carry significant legal and tax risk.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
