MEMPHIS, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Fall harvest is moving forward across the country, but recent rain has slowed fieldwork in parts of the Midwest while dry conditions have accelerated progress across the South.
USDA’s latest crop progress report shows 23 percent of the U.S. corn crop harvested, compared with a five-year average of 27 percent. The crop is rated 54 percent good to excellent, down from 57 percent the previous week.
Soybean harvest is at 25 percent, with 57 percent of the crop rated good to excellent, down one percentage point from the previous report.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to discuss harvest progress across the country, as well as the decline in crop conditions, which was one of the biggest things he was watching in the latest report.
Crop Conditions Draw Attention
In his interview with RFD News, Williamson said he was surprised by the drop in the overall corn crop rating.
“I was shocked by the data yesterday,” Williamson said. “You see a drop of 3% in the overall corn crop rating.”
He said several major production states saw declines, including Illinois, where the good-to-excellent rating dropped 2 percent.
Williamson said rain has also slowed harvest in some areas.
“USDA put corn harvest at 23% versus a five-year average of 27%,” he said.
The delays are also showing up in soybean harvest, although Williamson said the decline in the soybean condition rating was less significant.
South and Midwest See Different Conditions
Williamson said harvest conditions look very different across the country.
In the Mississippi Delta, harvest is running well ahead of normal. He pointed to Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana and West Tennessee as areas where producers have been able to make rapid progress.
“Living in Memphis, I look around. I look at Missouri, Arkansas, the northern part of the state of Mississippi and Louisiana, and West Tennessee,” Williamson said. “We are so far ahead of normal. It’s unbelievably the earliest harvest we’ve had here.”
He said weather has been ideal for harvest across the region, allowing farmers to make significant progress on fieldwork for the 2027 crop.
Williamson said the contrast between the Delta and other parts of the country is something to watch as the season progresses.
WASDE Yield Estimates in Focus
Williamson said the drop in crop condition ratings could become important when USDA releases its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report Friday.
“I think that’s really something that they can take into account as we look at the USDA supply and demand data that will come out on Friday of this week,” Williamson said.
He said yield will be a major question, particularly for corn, and the market will be watching what USDA does with its estimates.
Global Markets Also in Focus
Williamson said producers and traders also need to watch developments in the Black Sea region and the Strait of Hormuz.
He said weather in the Delta is another factor to watch, with some producers needing additional moisture while cotton growers would prefer to stay dry long enough to finish harvest.
Williamson also pointed to export demand, including China’s return from its Golden Week holiday and reduced competition from France following a poor corn crop there.
“Keep your eye on that, keep your eye on the export market,” Williamson said.
He said the Black Sea will remain important to global grain markets as well.
