At the Ag Outlook Forum in Kansas City, Missouri, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer shared a detailed look at Ukrainian winter wheat production and exports and how it is impacting the markets.
“These are all the commodities that the Ukrainians are expected to export. You’re talking about 3 million metric tons a month. This is stuff that can be done outside of those Black Sea ports. So the agreement on the Black Sea grain initiative in itself narrowly doesn’t have a huge impact, in itself narrowly. But what it does add, I think, is that food is different. The Black Sea grain initiative sets the tone that food is different because the world needs both Ukrainian and Russian grain and unless you take the prospect that food is different, and secure food out of the Black Sea, you would really cut about 25 to 30% of global wheat trade. If you started hitting Russian ships, or if Ukrainian other means of Ukrainian transportation were curtailed.”
Meyer added that without the Deal, Ukraine has to use more expensive land routes to transport commodities. He compared it to producers in Illinois sending grain through Iowa if the Mississippi River was closed.
