Is the rebuilding of the U.S. cattle herd finally gaining traction?

The beef industry has been waiting years for the herd to rebuild, and researchers at CattleFax say it is happening, but note it is taking a lot longer than originally thought.

Despite the higher prices, they say consumers are still buying up all they can.

“It does look like when we look back, January of 2025 will be the low in the beef cow herd. So, as I look at the numbers out here, I think it’s important that people recognize that our per capita beef supplies are pretty flat. They haven’t changed much. This price increase that we’re experiencing in the industry is demand-driven. Beef demand is at a 37-year high, and I think when people think about demand, obviously, quality has been the key to that. We’ve seen the quality of the animals being produced has increased substantially,” said CattleFax CEO Randy Blach.

Researchers at RaboBank have also been tracking the numbers. They say that hot consumer demand is likely here to stay.

“And I’m here to tell you, as we look at early 2025, all indications are that demand is going to continue to set new near-term record highs, looking like the best demand we’ve seen since 1986 at the moment. And a lot of that’s due to the fact that even though the consumer pricing is going up, and even though the consumer’s increasingly stressed, buying beef at retail is still a relatively cheap lifestyle upgrade that the consumer can make,” said Lance Zimmerman.

The latest Cattle On Feed report shows inventories are down two percent compared to last year at this time. Only two states saw an increase: Kansas herds grew by three percent, and Oklahoma herds grew by two percent.

Related Stories
Shrinking slaughter capacity may delay heifer retention, complicating herd rebuilding plans.
Even small declines in the calf crop translate into sustained supply pressure, supporting cattle prices over multiple years.
Tennessee State Veterinarian Dr. Samantha Batey joined us with the latest on biosecurity efforts and the state’s new “Know Before You Show” initiative.
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller discusses the state’s latest efforts to prevent the New World screwworm from reaching Texas.
Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
Quinn Rutt of Upstream Ranch previews the Nebraska cattle operation’s 49th Annual Production Sale where buyers can expect standout sire groups and a blend of long-standing ranch practices with modern genetic selection.
CattleCon 2026 officially kicks off Tuesday and continues through Thursday, bringing producers together to shape the future of the U.S. cattle industry.
The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Dr. Todd Davis, Chief Economist with the Indiana Farm Bureau, shares a snapshot of his state’s harvest conditions and insights from producers.
Market analyst Kevin Huddleston said news of trade deals could rebound cotton prices in late fall, and producers need to be ready to strike deals.
Texas A&M 4-H Director Montza Williams joins for an update on the expected timeline for the program’s new facility and all the associated benefits.
From tinkering with machines to building projects from scratch, students in the National FFA Organization develop skills to help shape future careers.
Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, joined us to break down the latest data on Canadian farmland values and share insights on how it impacts producers.
Lewis Williamson, from HTS Commodities, joined us to share insights on the farm economy from producers in the field.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.