Loan Delinquencies Increase, Farmland Values Continue to Strengthen

Credit stress is building for row-crop farms despite steady land values and slight price improvements.

CHICAGO, Il. (RFD-TV) — Farm finances tightened across the Chicago Federal Reserve’s Seventh District in the third quarter, with ag bankers reporting higher loan delinquencies even as farmland values posted modest year-over-year gains. The Chicago Fed’s latest AgLetter, led by policy advisor David Oppedahl, found credit conditions weakening further while crop farms remained pressed by narrow margins and rising costs.

Corn and soybean prices improved slightly late in the quarter, offering limited relief to crop producers who continue to face competition from Brazil and elevated input expenses. Bankers noted that weaker cash earnings are expected this fall and winter for most crop farms and dairy operations.

Operationally, more renewals and extensions signal increasing stress, and nearly half of the surveyed bankers anticipate a rise in forced liquidations. Some lenders are advising producers to tighten expenses or sell assets to rebuild working capital.

Regionally, farmland values rose about 3 percent from a year ago and held steady from the previous quarter, supported by strong demand and some interest from outside investors.

Looking ahead, livestock operations — particularly cattle and hog producers — may see stronger earnings as beef demand keeps prices elevated.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Credit stress is building for row-crop farms despite steady land values and slight price improvements.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
Clearer 45Z rules favor U.S. oilseeds, but final RFS volumes remain critical to locking in demand.
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
Winter Weather And Markets Reshape Agriculture Nationwide This Week
Falling livestock prices, combined with higher input costs, continue to squeeze farm profitability heading into 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.
Federal aid helps, but producers will bear most of the losses. Balance sheets may look stable, but margins remain fragile without policy support.
RFD NEWS Markets Specialist Tony St. James reviews the USDA’s Farms and Land in Farms 2025 Summary.
Strong corn exports support prices while soybeans lag yearly pace. However, large carryover stocks limit upside despite solid yields.
Fuel costs ease over the long term, but fertilizer energy remains volatile.
Adequate transportation capacity exists, but fuel costs and soft river demand could widen basis risk.