USDA Sees Food Prices Rising Again in 2026

Food inflation is still building in 2026, with beef leading pressure while eggs and dairy offer some relief.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — USDA expects food prices to rise again in 2026, with restaurant prices outpacing grocery costs. The outlook points to continued pressure on consumers even though inflation remains well below the spikes seen earlier this decade.

The Economic Research Service forecasts overall food prices to be up 2.9 percent this year. Food-at-home prices are projected to rise 2.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices are expected to rise 3.6 percent.

Beef remains a key driver. Beef and veal prices were 12.1 percent above a year ago in March, and USDA forecasts a 6.3 percent increase for 2026 as cattle supplies stay tight and demand stays firm.

Egg prices moved in the other direction. They fell 3.3 percent from February and were 44.7 percent below a year earlier in March. USDA expects egg prices to drop 29.4 percent in 2026 as production improves.

USDA also expects stronger gains for fresh vegetables, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages. Pork, poultry, and fresh fruit should see milder increases, while dairy prices are expected to decline.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Food inflation is still building in 2026, with beef leading pressure while eggs and dairy offer some relief.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
USDA forecasts wide price differences across grocery categories in 2026.
Beef and veal prices are projected to rise more than three times as fast as overall food prices.
USDA expects overall food prices to rise 2.9% in 2026, near the 20-year historical average.
Full-service restaurant food sales climbed nearly 8% while grocery-store sales rose about 3%.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Improved water levels are allowing more vessels and deeper loads through the Panama Canal.
Foreign subsidies, tariffs, and market controls continue to shape global sugar competition facing U.S. growers.
Drought Harvest Livestock Pressures Shape State Agriculture Nationwide
Weekly ethanol output fell to its lowest level since January as inventories continued to decline.
Winning bids averaged about $1.3 million as demand for 2027 grain rail capacity increased.
Rising Treasury yields could keep farm borrowing costs elevated heading into 2027.