NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Low water on the Mississippi River System is once again disrupting harvest logistics, reducing barge capacity at a critical time for U.S. grain exports. Following an unusually dry August in the Ohio River Basin—the driest on record—tributary flow into the lower Mississippi has dropped sharply.
Gauges at Cairo, IL, and Memphis, TN, are hovering just above low-water thresholds, prompting restrictions by the U.S. Coast Guard and dredging operations by the Army Corps of Engineers to keep navigation open. Restrictions now limit tow sizes and draft depths, cutting efficiency for both southbound grain and northbound fertilizer shipments.
The USDA projects record U.S. corn production this fall at 427 million metric tons, with exports expected to reach 75.6 mmt. Year-to-date sales are running 46 percent above average, with Mexico, Japan, and Colombia leading buyers. By contrast, soybean export sales are down sharply, as China has yet to finalize purchases, although soybean meal exports are expected to reach record levels.
Barge freight rates out of Cairo and Memphis have risen 31 percent over the past month but remain well below the extreme highs of 2022. Analysts note that lessons learned since then, combined with lower soybean export volumes, have tempered rate spikes. Still, strong corn exports and any rebound in soybean demand could add pressure if river conditions deteriorate further.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers face tighter barge capacity and higher freight costs during peak harvest. Strong corn exports may further strain logistics if low water levels persist, although weaker soybean exports are currently tempering rate spikes.
Slower grain movement may pressure basis, but falling diesel prices could help offset transportation costs.
December 16, 2025 06:00 AM
·
A new study found that retaining the EPA’s half-RIN credit protects soybean demand, farm income, and crushing-sector strength while preserving biofuel market flexibility.
December 15, 2025 12:15 PM
·
The U.S. has a bountiful corn supply, but markets are waiting for the January WASDE Report, which will include updated yield estimates.
December 15, 2025 11:34 AM
·
Western Caucus member Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-AR) details the SPEED Act on Champions of Rural America. The legislation aims to reform NEPA, streamline permitting, and expand domestic energy development.
December 12, 2025 03:58 PM
·
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.
December 12, 2025 03:32 PM
·
Ethanol output softened, but underlying supply-and-demand trends indicate stable longer-term use despite short-term volatility in blending and exports.
December 12, 2025 11:47 AM
·
The specific provision in the CO₂ storage law allowed the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) to authorize carbon storage projects to proceed even if they lacked unanimous consent from all affected landowners.
December 11, 2025 04:15 PM
·
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
December 11, 2025 01:16 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities breaks down the outlook on grain storage and domestic supply chain strength as producers weigh planting decisions with forthcoming federal aid.
December 11, 2025 01:11 PM
·
