National Crop Progress and Agribusiness Update—Monday, January 5, 2026

Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions

Crop Progress Graphic

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — As the calendar turns to 2026, producers across the country are balancing winter weather management with early marketing and planning decisions. Livestock markets remain supply-driven, grain movement is seasonally uneven, and moisture conditions continue to shape outlooks for winter wheat, forage, and specialty crops. Input costs, logistics, and policy developments remain front of mind as producers position for the year ahead.

Great Plains

  • Texas — Cattle supplies remain tight, with feeder availability limited and border uncertainty still impacting placement decisions. Wheat pasture conditions remain mixed, with dryland acres needing moisture. Cotton ginning is largely complete, and marketing decisions are extending into early 2026.
  • Oklahoma — Winter wheat stands remain uneven, with grazing pressure increasing where moisture was adequate. Cow-calf operators focused on winter feed management.
  • Kansas — Feedlot inventories steady, but placements remain constrained. Wheat is fully dormant under mixed soil moisture conditions.
  • Nebraska — Corn movement supported by ethanol demand, keeping interior basis firm. Cold weather raises feedlot energy costs.
  • North & South Dakota — Grain movement slowed by winter weather. Calf marketing is steady but lighter as producers retain inventory.

Midwest

  • Iowa — Ethanol production continues to support corn demand, though margins are mixed. Hog producers are monitoring price pressure and feed costs.
  • Illinois — Interior basis stronger than river markets amid seasonal barge disruptions. Fertilizer and input purchasing are underway.
  • Indiana & Ohio — Corn and soybean marketing decisions tied closely to export demand and early 2026 price outlooks.
  • Minnesota & Wisconsin — Dairy margins are tightening as national milk production rises. Feed supplies are adequate, but energy costs remain elevated.

Delta & South

  • Arkansas — Rice and soybean marketing steady; barge traffic improving but still weather-sensitive.
  • Louisiana — Grain movement slowed by river conditions; export demand mixed.
  • Mississippi — Corn and soybean basis stable; producers watching logistics closely.
  • Georgia & Alabama — Cotton marketing continues; poultry integrators managing higher feed costs.
  • Florida — Vegetable producers are dealing with lingering drought stress in northern areas and increasing irrigation demands.

West & Southwest

  • California — Strong milk production continues to pressure dairy prices. Vegetable and processing tomato sectors are adjusting to high yields and softer pricing.
  • Arizona & New Mexico — Forage availability stable; livestock producers focused on water management and winter feed.
  • Colorado & Utah — Wheat and forage crops dormant; livestock operations focused on weather protection and feed costs.
  • Nevada — Hay movement steady; water availability shaping longer-term planning.

Northwest & Northern Rockies

  • Washington & Oregon — Grain exports remain active despite recent rail challenges. Tree fruit storage and marketing are ongoing.
  • Idaho — The potato and dairy sectors are monitoring price pressures amid strong production levels.
  • Montana & Wyoming — Cattle markets steady; hay supplies adequate, though winter conditions are increasing costs.

Northeast

  • New York & Pennsylvania — Dairy producers reviewing risk management strategies as milk supplies expand nationally.
  • Maryland & Delaware — Grain movement steady; poultry operations adjusting to higher energy expenses.
  • New England — Specialty crop and greenhouse operations focused on winter energy costs and local market demand.

Upper Midwest & Great Lakes

  • Michigan — Dry beans, sugar beets, and dairy are facing margin pressure. Basis is stronger away from river terminals.
  • Wisconsin — Cheese production supporting milk demand, but rising supplies continue to weigh on prices.

Far North & Territories

  • Alaska — Feed and fuel logistics remain costly; producers focused on winter supply security.
  • U.S. Territories — Freight delays and transportation costs continue to challenge agricultural input and output flows.
Related Stories
NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses the evolving role of ethanol in the current energy crisis, opportunities for expanding corn discusses the evolving role of ethanol in the current marketdemand, and the industry’s outlook moving forward.
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins surveys Nebraska wildfire damage as cattle losses, tight supplies, rising imports, and beef industry investigations impact U.S. markets. Roger McEowen outlines legal and tax considerations for ranchers recovering from wildfire damage.
Spring Weather Creates Uneven Early Season Field Conditions
USDA Cattle-on-Feed report for March shows slightly lower inventory and higher February placements, signaling a tighter supply but steady outlook for the U.S. cattle herd.
The Midwest event will feature hundreds of horses and offer nationwide bidding access to participants
Ranchers have a lot going on at the moment, but some ‘friendly’ news could be coming with this month’s Cattle-on-Feed Report from the USDA.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Strong ethanol exports support long-term growth in corn demand.
Jake Charleston from Specialty Risk Insurance Agency recapped an Oklahoma auctioneer contest and recent industry events, showing how stakeholder feedback helps insurers gauge market conditions and risk management needs.
Pat Hord with the National Pork Producers Council joined us to recap producer meetings in Washington and discuss key policy priorities including Prop 12 and agricultural labor.
Cattle-on-Feed is down on the year in the USDA’s April report, with lower placements and marketings signaling tighter feedlot activity.
Steven Snow with the U.S. Small Business Administration joined us to discuss tax relief for rural Americans and the long-term benefits of new provisions impacting farmers and small businesses.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.