North American biofuels are wrestling with uncertainty due to tariff talks

An energy expert tells Reuters he expects the North American biofuels industry to contract if the uncertainty of tariffs continues to drag on.

Paul Niznik is the Director of Energy at Capstone LLC, he says that while he expects the industry to contract, it will not disappear entirely. He says that tariff unknowns have left little room for prices to catch up, but tariffs are not the industry’s only concerns.

A lack of 45Z tax credit guidance continues to impact the industry.

Brazil’s ethanol industry also faces some tough choices as tariffs loom.

To avoid reciprocal duties from teh U.S., Brazil would have to lower its 18% duty on American ethanol, and while ithis would allow Brazil to keep the U.S. as a key export market, opening itself up to U.S. ethanol would hurt its local industry.

Brazil shipped nearly 300 million liters of ethanol to the U.S. last year.

Related Stories
Verified U.S. data show real leather’s carbon footprint is lower than advertised — an edge for the American cattle industry in both marketing and byproduct value.
Tight cattle supplies keep prices high for ranchers, but policy shifts, export barriers, and packer losses signal a volatile road ahead for the beef supply chain.
Recognizing phosphorus and potash as critical minerals underscores their importance in crop production and food security, providing producers with an added layer of risk protection.
Pork producers should prioritize health and productivity gains, hedge feed and hogs selectively, and watch Brazil’s export pace and China’s sow policy for price signals.
AFBF Economist Danny Munch shares how passing the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act could give the dairy industry a needed boost.
Texas Cattle Feeders Association Chairman Robby Kirkland explains how the ongoing U.S.-Mexico border closure impacts feed yards that rely on Mexican cattle due to the New World Screwworm.