Recent trade action likely isn’t priced into the markets yet, analysts say

The markets have responded in recent weeks to the rollout of President Trump’s trade policy. Analysts are closely watching the action in recent days but warn that the events of the last couple of weeks likely have not been accounted for yet.

“I don’t think they’ve priced it fully in, and I will circle back around to the soy complex. We’ve had a very weak product market. The biofuel, sustainable aviation fuel bulls in soybean oil have been very disappointed. They have probably been pushed out of the market. There’s probably a sense that they’re going to come back in,” said Mike Zuzolo.

Zuzolo says any future action in the soy complex will largely depend on what the EPA decides with blending in the coming months.

Related Stories
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
U.S. Trade officials announced new deals with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina, as well as a steep reduction in tariffs on Swiss imports.
China’s cost advantage with Brazilian soybeans and vague public messaging leave U.S. export prospects uncertain heading into winter.
The request follows pressure from the American Sheep Industry Association (ASIA), which called for a formal investigation into whether lamb imports from Australia and New Zealand have cut into the U.S. market share.
David Hardin with the Indiana Soybean Alliance discusses USMEF’s push to open new global export markets for both meat and soy-based feed.
With the U.S.–Vietnam agreement nearing signature, U.S. cotton, corn, and soybean exporters could lock in new demand lanes just as global supply shifts.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Read the full press release published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Lily Pryer’s passion shows how National FFA members are making an impact in classrooms and communities all across Rural America.
A look at the legislative year ahead as lawmakers return to Washington with a slate of trade concerns to tackle in 2026—from new Chinese tariffs on beef imports to the USMCA review this summer.
Shaun Haney, Host of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us with his 2026 cattle market outlook and insights on beef prices.
Farmer Bridge Assistance payments provide immediate balance-sheet support heading into 2026, but remain a short-term bridge rather than a substitute for long-term market recovery.
The New Year is here, but in Oregon, some ranchers and livestock producers are still trying to recover from record wildfires back in 2024.