The markets have responded in recent weeks to the rollout of President Trump’s trade policy. Analysts are closely watching the action in recent days but warn that the events of the last couple of weeks likely have not been accounted for yet.
“I don’t think they’ve priced it fully in, and I will circle back around to the soy complex. We’ve had a very weak product market. The biofuel, sustainable aviation fuel bulls in soybean oil have been very disappointed. They have probably been pushed out of the market. There’s probably a sense that they’re going to come back in,” said Mike Zuzolo.
Zuzolo says any future action in the soy complex will largely depend on what the EPA decides with blending in the coming months.
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China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.
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Farmers should watch for soybean export rebounds with harvest, while corn and wheat shipments remain strong and sorghum demand struggles.
“We believe that it is just a matter of days or weeks... before we see New World screwworm in Texas.”
Rollins says the new trade relationship with Taiwan, which is committed to buying a significant amount of U.S. soy, could not come at a better time for farmers facing financial strain.
