The U.S. could be facing a milk-cow shortage.
New data from CoBank show the number of cows able to produce milk has fallen to a 20-year low. Analysts predict that the trend will continue until a recovery period sometime in 2027, when more dairy facilities are expected to come online.
Record-high prices for beef calves, coupled with tight cattle supplies, have prompted many dairy producers to produce more calves for feedlots and fewer for milk barns.
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Shrinking slaughter capacity may delay heifer retention, complicating herd rebuilding plans.
Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.
AFBF Economist Danny Munch shares a closer look at the dairy market and the forces impacting producers today.
Early indications suggest the U.S. cattle industry may be nearing the end of its liquidation phase. Oklahoma State University livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel says the industry could be at or near the cyclical low.
Beef x Dairy cattle with strong genetics and documentation are earning prices comparable to native feeders.
