The U.S. could be facing a milk-cow shortage.
New data from CoBank show the number of cows able to produce milk has fallen to a 20-year low. Analysts predict that the trend will continue until a recovery period sometime in 2027, when more dairy facilities are expected to come online.
Record-high prices for beef calves, coupled with tight cattle supplies, have prompted many dairy producers to produce more calves for feedlots and fewer for milk barns.
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Rising cow numbers and higher yields are boosting milk supplies, which may keep pressure on prices and farm margins into the fall.
Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
Disease risks remain a key factor to watch heading into fall.
