WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 remained unchanged at 350 million bushels in USDA’s March Oil Crops Outlook, even as stronger crush demand lifted both supply and use forecasts.
USDA raised soybean imports by 5 million bushels and increased crush by the same amount to a record 2.58 billion bushels. The export forecast held at 1.58 billion bushels, while the season-average farm price stayed unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. Soybean meal demand improved on strong domestic use and competitive pricing, pushing the meal price forecast up to $300 per short ton.
For producers, the crush increase matters because it reflects solid demand for soybean products even as soybean oil use in biofuels has weakened. USDA lowered soybean oil used for biomass-based diesel to 14.0 billion pounds, but stronger food, feed, and industrial use helped offset much of that decline. Soybean oil prices were still raised to 55 cents per pound.
Globally, sunflowerseed production and crush increased, especially in Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, while Argentina’s soybean crop was trimmed slightly on lower yield.
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
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The Surface Transportation Board rejects the proposed Norfolk Southern–Union Pacific merger, prompting concerns from agricultural shippers about rail consolidation, service reliability, and higher transportation costs.
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Freight volatility and route selection remain critical to soybean export margins and competitiveness.
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While short-term volatility remains a risk, softer ocean freight rates in 2026 could improve export margins.
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Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
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