New crop soybean sales are falling behind, approaching 20-year lows. China has not booked a single shipment, and analysts say demand could drop even more.
The peak marketing season in the United States will come later this year, but China already has a lot of soybeans on hand. Imports there were steady back in May on a push for more oilseed processing. They have so much on hand, Reuters reports that some crush plants are shutting down because of storage issues.
While China has not bought any new crop beans just yet, there is still time. In 2005, the first Chinese purchase came during the week ending August 11th.
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Clearer 45Z rules favor U.S. oilseeds, but final RFS volumes remain critical to locking in demand.
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
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Corn and soybean exports continue to anchor weekly inspection totals, with China maintaining a visible role, while wheat and sorghum remain more dependent on regional and seasonal demand shifts.
Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.
