New crop soybean sales are falling behind, approaching 20-year lows. China has not booked a single shipment, and analysts say demand could drop even more.
The peak marketing season in the United States will come later this year, but China already has a lot of soybeans on hand. Imports there were steady back in May on a push for more oilseed processing. They have so much on hand, Reuters reports that some crush plants are shutting down because of storage issues.
While China has not bought any new crop beans just yet, there is still time. In 2005, the first Chinese purchase came during the week ending August 11th.
Related Stories
Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.
The President’s trip to Asia this week follows a trade mission by the Iowa Soybean Association. Farmers say they were reminded that U.S. soybeans have an international reputation that can be easy to take for granted here at home.
Export volumes remain positive year-to-date, but weaker soybean loadings and slowing wheat movement hint at early bottlenecks in global demand or river logistics. Farmers should watch basis levels and freight conditions as export competition heats up.
A fast-moving series of trade signals from the White House and key partners is resetting the near-term outlook for U.S. agriculture.
Stay alert for trade announcements—especially border reopening timelines, tariff threats, and developments in Brazil’s export flows.