New crop soybean sales are falling behind, approaching 20-year lows. China has not booked a single shipment, and analysts say demand could drop even more.
The peak marketing season in the United States will come later this year, but China already has a lot of soybeans on hand. Imports there were steady back in May on a push for more oilseed processing. They have so much on hand, Reuters reports that some crush plants are shutting down because of storage issues.
While China has not bought any new crop beans just yet, there is still time. In 2005, the first Chinese purchase came during the week ending August 11th.
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The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum highlights modest price support from tighter supplies across cotton, grains, dairy, livestock, and sugar into 2026.
Strong corn exports support prices while soybeans lag yearly pace. However, large carryover stocks limit upside despite solid yields.
Large carry-in stocks across major crops could limit price recovery in 2026/27 unless demand strengthens or weather-related supply reductions occur.
Rising Chinese feed output — especially for swine — signals sustained demand for protein meals and feed inputs, even when meat production growth appears modest.
Corn demand remains supportive, but weaker soybean buying limits overall export momentum.
