Tipping Of The Scales: The U.S. ag trade deficit gap will shrink next year, according to experts

USDA says that the gap in the U.S. ag trade deficit will shrink next year.

The department’s latest trade forecast shows that the U.S. ag trade deficit will drop to $37 billion next year, which is lower than their previous estimates and down from nearly $44 billion this year. Last year, the U.S. ag trade deficit was $32 billion, and $17 billion in 2023.

USDA’s research arm shows the latest adjustment comes as exports are coming in hotter than expected. It is preparing for $173 billion in ag exports next year, adjusted up from their $169 billion estimate during the summer.

Exports are the lifeblood of many U.S. farming operations, and recent numbers show just how much they impact the overall economy.

USDA numbers show that in 2023, all U.S. ag exports generated $362 billion in economic output. Non-bulk exports reached $101 billion, generating an additional $120 billion.
For each dollar of exported ag products, USDA says it generated $2.06 in domestic activity.

USDA economists took a look at production costs over the last season.

Corn this year cost just shy of $809 an acre. Next year, they estimate those costs to hit $916. Soybeans cost this year ran $658 per acre, with next year estimates at $678.
Wheat is projected to jump from $395 to $409 an acre.

Related Stories
As budget hearings continue on Capitol Hill, policymakers focus on long-term solutions to stabilize the fertilizer market to support U.S. farmers.
Strong ethanol output supports corn demand despite export weakness.
Rural driving conditions increase the risk of serious collisions with animals.
AFBF Economist Dr. Faith Parum break down new survey findings on fertilizer affordability and producer sentiment heading into the 2026 growing season.
The National Pork Board recognized John Parker for more than 40 years of advocacy and leadership.