Seasonal Beef Production Recovery Could Temper Retail Prices

Seasonal beef production gains may moderate retail price pressure, while tight cattle supplies continue supporting producer values.

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD-TV) — Beef supplies are beginning their seasonal recovery, offering possible relief from recent retail price highs without signaling a larger cattle supply. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension livestock economist Dr. David Anderson says production remains below last year.

Weekly beef production averaged 6.1 percent below 2025 levels from January through April. In May, the year-over-year decline narrowed to 3.8 percent as slaughter moved above early-spring lows.

Steer slaughter has edged higher, while heifer slaughter has increased slightly. Beef cow culling remains below last year but has increased from early-year levels. Heavy-fed cattle weights continue supporting total beef output.

Seasonally tight spring supplies met grilling-season demand, helping push retail beef prices higher. More cattle on feed and continued heavy carcass weights could increase summer production from spring lows and slow further price gains.

The improvement does not mean beef production will exceed last year or that consumers will see lower year-over-year prices. Limited cattle inventories remain the broader issue, keeping cattle values supported while beef remains expensive.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Seasonal beef production gains may moderate retail price pressure, while tight cattle supplies continue supporting producer values.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Drought Shifts Across Regions As Fall Fieldwork Continues
The unanimous verdict marks a legal victory for Bayer as thousands of Roundup lawsuits remain unresolved.
A new federal order expands livestock grazing to help reduce wildfire risk and improve rangeland health.
Months of restricted shipping have left traders watching closely for signs that Russian commodity exports are resuming.
Additional border crossings could bring more Mexican feeder cattle into the U.S. market following trade restrictions.
The funding could expand domestic fuel supplies, though lower diesel prices are not guaranteed.
EPA estimates the proposed changes could save $45 billion in regulatory compliance costs.
Even a wet winter may not be enough to restore water supplies across drought-stricken western states.
Some smaller feedlots are already empty as operators struggle with limited cattle availability.
Higher fertilizer and financing costs are putting pressure on Brazilian producers.
Federal payments are keeping farm income elevated despite weaker earnings from agricultural markets.
The department has not released new details on how individual agencies or offices will be affected.