This year’s ag trade deficit is forecast to ballon past $45 billion. It is a number that puts the trade balance in the red by double digits.
“A trade balance of -$12 billion, which is $8.9 billion less than the -$3 billion during the same time period the previous year,” said Bart Kenner, USDA economist.
Kenner says the main driver of slower exports in the last couple of years has been the strong dollar compared to foreign currencies. U.S. ag exports fell around $4 billion last year. Exports to Asia are expected to fall several billion dollars this year, and that was calculated before tariff discussions.
Related Stories
Record pace corn exports are helping stabilize prices despite softer global grain production and ongoing supply competition.
Broader export demand helps stabilize prices and supports stronger marketing opportunities over time.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains why the 2026 USMCA review could directly affect dairy access, produce competition, and export reliability for U.S. farmers and ranchers.
Smaller U.S. production and steady global demand could provide better pricing opportunities in 2026.
With record grain harvests and rising global ethanol demand, leaders across the ag and energy sectors are pushing for year-round E15 sales to mitigate the strain on grain trade.
Stronger rail movement and lower fuel prices are easing logistics, even as export pace and river conditions remain uneven.