This year’s ag trade deficit is forecast to ballon past $45 billion. It is a number that puts the trade balance in the red by double digits.
“A trade balance of -$12 billion, which is $8.9 billion less than the -$3 billion during the same time period the previous year,” said Bart Kenner, USDA economist.
Kenner says the main driver of slower exports in the last couple of years has been the strong dollar compared to foreign currencies. U.S. ag exports fell around $4 billion last year. Exports to Asia are expected to fall several billion dollars this year, and that was calculated before tariff discussions.
Related Stories
A strong corn export pull is supportive of bids; soybeans need steady vessel programs or fresh sales to firm cash.
An import lag for ground beef will likely look different than last year’s egg shortage. The difference comes down to biosecurity and market flexibility.
China’s crusher losses and Brazil tensions, Gale warns, could reopen critical soybean trade channels for U.S. producers.
Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
