WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — As U.S. leaders work to improve trade relations with China, the impacts on American agriculture continue to shift. U.S. officials say the Asian trade giant now has more time to honor their soybean commitments this year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week said China could have until the end of February to buy all 12 million metric tons.
In an interview with RFD-TV News, commodity trader Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions warned that the new deadline casts doubt on the entire trade deal. “We had always been told it was going to be done by the end of 2025,” Hoops said. “The trade has been expecting that they would buy those 12 million tons here by the end of December. His comments [this week] suggest that that’s not going to be the case, that they’re going to delay those purchases maybe a couple more months. And so, it has a lot of the trade wondering about the validity of this trade agreement.”
Red Meat
The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) has its own issues with China. USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom tells us demand is strong there, voicing confusion and concern that China has yet to approve several U.S. beef plants.
“So, starting with the beef side, you know, we’re down one percent year-to-date, but almost all of that’s because of China,” Halstrom said. “China, since April, has basically not relisted any of our beef plants – 400+ establishments are not approved for China. It’s not demand-related. Demand is good, and key customers like Sam’s Club are needing and wanting our U.S. beef back. So, it’s obviously a political situation.”
Halstrom said, despite all the noise in the markets right now, he is confident we will see progress with China, and a strong U.S. dollar in Asia is also complicating the situation.
Sorghum Surplus & Push for China to Make Good on Biofuel Pledge
Sorghum growers are also hoping China soon steps up to the plate as the crop piles up across the Midwest. While ethanol is consuming a lot of those supplies, trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News they really need China to make some more purchases.
“We’ve got a great milo crop, grain sorghum crop out here in the Plains -- Kansas being a big producer, the Texas Panhandle being another big producer,” Huck said. “And those bushels just are getting backstopped and backfilled into ethanol production. And ethanol production has been strong for us, but we really need to see China come to the table with an export program to buy some of those bushels. And we’ve got the bushels. It’s a great product. It’s a great grain [and a] great feedstock. We just need a little help to get those bushels shipped overseas, where they can be used.”
If China were to return for more U.S. sorghum, Huck explained, basis would likely see some dramatic swings, which is something U.S. milo growers are eager to see.
The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) is likewise calling for reciprocal duties on Chinese ag imports. The push comes after China failed to deliver on commitments to increase ethanol trade set forth under Phase One of the 2019 trade agreement between the first Trump Administration and China. RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report with his thoughts.
In his interview with RFD-TV News, Cooper explained the history of the U.S.-China commitments on ethanol, what was purchased under Phase One, the shortfall, and the resulting lost market opportunities for U.S. ethanol producers and grain farmers. Finally, he walked through the group’s push for reciprocal duties on Chinese imports and what they hope to accomplish with the trade adjustment.
