NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD News) —U.S. soybean oil demand is expected to climb in 2026/27 as federal biofuel policy pushes biomass-based diesel production higher. USDA’s Economic Research Service says record Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027 are expected to increase demand for biofuel feedstocks.
The 45Z tax credit also changes the feedstock picture. ERS says the credit now limits eligibility to fuel produced in the United States with feedstocks sourced from North America and removes indirect land-use change from carbon score calculations.
Soybean oil should benefit from that change. USDA forecasts soybean oil use for biomass-based diesel production at 17.8 billion pounds in 2026/27, up 3.6 billion pounds from 2025/26. Canola oil use is also expected to grow.
Renewable diesel capacity has expanded sharply, rising from 900 million gallons in January 2021 to 5 billion gallons in December 2025. That growth increases competition for vegetable oils, animal fats, and used cooking oil.
ERS projects Central Illinois soybean oil prices at 70 cents per pound, up from 63 cents.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Stronger biofuel policy support could lift soybean oil demand and help maintain crush margins in soybean markets.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
January 16, 2026 01:13 PM
·
Wind repowering offers a rare opportunity to renegotiate outdated leases and improve long-term land income for landowners who act early.
January 16, 2026 06:00 AM
·
Rep. Erin Houchin of Indiana discusses how the Affordable Homes Act will benefit rural communities, and her broader efforts to improve access to affordable housing.
January 15, 2026 03:04 PM
·
Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig discusses market conditions, policy priorities, and his outlook for agriculture moving forward.
January 15, 2026 01:36 PM
·
Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota joined us to discuss key ag policy developments and his outlook for agriculture in 2026.
January 15, 2026 12:51 PM
·
Record ethanol production and improving blending demand continue to support corn usage despite rising short-term inventories.
January 15, 2026 11:47 AM
·
