Market analysts are closely watching the wheat markets as they have seen a rally in recent days. Some think weather is the main driver, but traders have other ideas.
Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions tells us it all comes down to geopolitical pressure. He believes U.S. wheat could get more competitive globally if the war in Ukraine comes to a close.
“Because Russia has been taking wheat out of the Ukraine And other places and selling it on the world market at a very cheap rate. They’re just undercutting everyone in an effort to finance their war. In theory, if the war ends, there’s no reason to finance that war and no reason to take that wheat and dump it on the world market at cheap prices. Maybe this wheat market can recover off of that news.”
China is another area that traders are closely watching. This month’s WASDE report showed changes on balance sheets that could indicate trouble within the Chinese economy.
USDA’s report shows wheat strength overall, with winter wheat yields setting records, while spring wheat and rye saw declines. Oats and barley remain constrained by record-low acreage despite stable or rising yields.
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Taiwan’s pledge to expand imports strengthens export prospects for U.S. row crops, livestock products, and specialty commodities, while the USDA’s broader trade push seeks to diversify farm markets globally.
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Higher domestic rail tariffs and mixed capacity shifts will influence grain movement this harvest. Strong corn exports provide momentum, but logistics costs remain a critical factor.
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The Final Grain Stocks Report may be the last key figures we see if a government shutdown halts future updates.
September 30, 2025 12:25 PM
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A booming butterfat market is good for some dairy products but threatens efficiency and margins for cheesemakers unless protein levels catch up
September 29, 2025 12:53 PM
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Strong corn exports are anchoring U.S. trade, while soybean sales remain steady, but shipments lag.
September 26, 2025 04:48 PM
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Waiting could risk leaving next year’s crop unprotected.
September 25, 2025 01:55 PM
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China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.
September 23, 2025 01:21 PM
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