USDA Crop Progress Report-- June 5, 2023

Crop Progress Graphic

In this week’s Crop Progress & Condition report, I will be dropping the corn and soybean planting progress numbers since both crops are basically finished with their planting for this year. Instead, we will switch to corn condition numbers AND we will be adding the initial condition updates for soybeans and spring wheat as well.

Cotton planting finally made some decent progress as it moved up to 71 percent completion nationwide but still behind its five-year average of 75 percent. Of the top five producing states, Alabama has reached the 90 percent benchmark. The largest producing state of Texas advanced by 10 points last week to stand at 60 percent planted - nine points behind schedule.

Grain sorghum planting across the nation made mediocre progress as it edged up to 49 percent completion versus its five-year average of 53. In the largest producing states in the Plains, Nebraska made great strides as farmers put another 15 percent of its crop in the ground. Though it doesn’t have as much production, it’s noteworthy that South Dakota reported an increase in planted acreage of 23 percentage points last week to end up at 78 percent as of Sunday.

Corn condition nationwide declined by five points to end up with 64 percent in the good to excellent categories. (Analysts were looking for a drop of 2-6 points in the national rating this week.) In the I-80 Corridor, the eastern half saw HUGE drops in their condition ratings as Illinois saw its rating nosedive by 19 points. Ohio dropped 17 points and Indiana went down by 10. In all cases, the sudden drop can be blamed on moisture suddenly shutting off at least a couple weeks ago. On the west end of the Corridor, Nebraska actually improved by one point.

Soybean condition ratings made their first appearance for the year. The initial rating for the national good to excellent categories came in at 62 percent which was close to analyst expectations. In the prime I-80 Corridor, Iowa posted the highest rating of 70 percent. Neighboring Illinois could only muster a 51 percent rating. Outside the Corridor, Minnesota made a strong showing with a 79 percent rating.

Cotton condition ratings saw a three point improvement nationwide compared to last week to land at 51 percent in the good to excellent categories. Of the top five producing states, Alabama had the highest rating of 83 percent while North Carolina reported 74 percent. The largest producing state of Texas lags with a relatively low 31 percent rating.

Winter wheat condition nationwide improved by two percentage points to edge up to 36 percent good to excellent. In the Plains, Kansas still reports only 12 percent of its acres made the good to excellent grade while 65 percent of its crop rates poor to very poor with many, many thousands of acres having been completely abandoned because of drought related crop failure. Much of the crop in the southern half of the country is at or nearing maturity. Harvest activity has already gotten well underway in the Deep South as I’ll mention below.

USDA released its first winter wheat harvest progress report this week and it showed that four percent of the nation’s crop is now out of the field. Of course, most of that is in the South. In the biggest producing states in the Plains, Texas reports 29 percent of its acreage is already harvested as combines have already rolled into the central part of the state. Oklahoma says 15 percent of its crop is already in the bin - nearly double its five-year average.

Spring wheat condition was reported for the first time this year and nationwide, the good to excellent rating came in at 64 percent. Of the top five producing states, North Dakota reported the best rating of 67 percent. While not one of the top producing states, Minnesota did show the highest rated crop overall with 77 percent in the good to excellent categories.

Pasture conditions improved again in all of the Plains states. Nebraska conditions rebounded by 10 points in the good to excellent categories since a week ago. Oklahoma improved by eight points. Outside the Plains states, Montana reported a 12 point improvement.

In the topsoil moisture deficit report (generally considered to measure the top four inches of soil representing the seed planting and sprouting zone), Michigan has become the runaway leader with 88 percent in the two driest categories. Ohio moves into second with 76 percent. Missouri, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and Illinois all report more than 70 percent of their acres are lacking in moisture.

In the subsoil moisture deficit report (considered to measure deep soil moisture down to a few feet where the crop roots would extend downward), Michigan grabs the top spot with 81 percent of its acres reported as short to very short on moisture. Nebraska still has 71 percent and Missouri moves up the list with 69 percent this week.

USDA Crop Progress 230605.pdf

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