USDA expects expensive grocery store and restaurant prices this year

All food prices are projected to climb again this year but at a slower pace, according to economists at USDA.

“We saw very high increases in food at home prices in 2022. The percent price increase was 11.4 percent, which is a level or a percent increase that we hadn’t seen in about 40 years. This has led us to have relatively high expectations for price increases this coming year because we aren’t seeing price decreases for food at home yet in December. They increase by three percent so our forecasted food at home price increase for 2023 is 8 percent with a prediction interval or a range of uncertainty between 4.5 And 11.7 percent,” said Matt MacLachlan, USDA economist.

When it comes to food away from home, MacLachlan says the inflation rate is not coming down as quickly.

“For food away from home, the inflation rate isn’t coming down as fast as those other categories, so even though we only saw a 7.7 percent increase for this category, our forecasting models are telling us that we should expect similar food price increases for next year. Our point estimate is 8.2 percent with a prediction interval of 6.7 to 9.7 percent.”

Officials at USDA say they are using a new system to generate these projections which is why there is such a wide range of results. They remind everyone there is still a lot of time for these results to change when considering events like the current HPAI outbreak the Fed’s interest rate hikes.

Related Stories
USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says there are a few silver linings in the spring forecast for farmers even if El Niño doesn’t make its exit in the coming weeks.

Agriculture Shows
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join Host and Market Day Report Anchor Christina Loren as she interviews members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Farm Traveler is for people who want to connect with their food and those who grow it. Thanks to direct-to-consumer businesses, agritourism, and social media, it’s now easier than ever to learn how our food is made and support local farmers. Here on the Farm Traveler, we want to connect you with businesses offering direct-to-consumer products you can try at home, agritourism sites you can visit with your family, and exciting new technologies that are changing how your food is being grown.
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.
Host Ben Bailey hops in the tractor cab, giving farmers 10 minutes to answer as many questions and grab as much cash as they can for their local FFA chapter.