USDA Grain Stocks Report Surprises Corn and Wheat

Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September 1 Grain Stocks report leaned bearish for corn and wheat, while soybeans landed close to expectations.

Old-crop corn stocks were reported at 1.532 billion bushels, well above the average trade estimate of 1.337 billion (range 1.26–1.45). The larger-than-expected figure suggests that feed and export use was softer than anticipated, resulting in more grain being stored as the new harvest advances.

Soybean stocks came in at 316 million bushels, only slightly under the average trade guess of 323 million (range 295–360). The figure was largely neutral, showing modestly stronger disappearance during the summer but staying within pre-report expectations.

All wheat stocks totaled 2.12 billion bushels, topping the average trade estimate of 2.043 billion (range 1.954–2.135). Larger-than-expected inventories reflect both strong production and slower early-season demand, adding pressure to an already heavy global wheat outlook.

Market analysts said the bearish surprises in corn and wheat could weigh on futures, while soybeans offered little fresh direction.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
Related Stories
Regulatory uncertainty could slow the growth of fiber and grain hemp unless implementation is delayed.
Quick to prep and packed with flavor, this dish is a bold way to kick up any weekend spread.
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas discusses expected changes to the 45Z tax credit and what they could mean for agriculture and rural America.
Purdue University Professor of Agricultural Economics Dr. Jim Mintert shares a closer look at farmer sentiment and the key issues shaping the agricultural economy in January.
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
Shrinking slaughter capacity may delay heifer retention, complicating herd rebuilding plans.
Global pork production is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, despite trade volatility stemming from shifting import policies and swine disease pressures.
Clearer 45Z rules favor U.S. oilseeds, but final RFS volumes remain critical to locking in demand.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Evan Keppy, a member of Iowa’s North Scott FFA Chapter, shares how the National FFA Organization helped shape his leadership skills.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joins us to provide an updated analysis of projected ARC and PLC payments and potential delays due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Approximately 42,000 birds were affected in the outbreak, officials said.
Beef demand could be influencing other economic sectors, as consumers adjust spending habits to prioritize higher-priced beef products.
AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.
Dr. Beetham outlined the background of the EU’s decision to modernize seed regulations and where the process stands today, and its impact on global agriculture and food security.