USDA Grain Stocks Report Surprises Corn and Wheat

Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September 1 Grain Stocks report leaned bearish for corn and wheat, while soybeans landed close to expectations.

Old-crop corn stocks were reported at 1.532 billion bushels, well above the average trade estimate of 1.337 billion (range 1.26–1.45). The larger-than-expected figure suggests that feed and export use was softer than anticipated, resulting in more grain being stored as the new harvest advances.

Soybean stocks came in at 316 million bushels, only slightly under the average trade guess of 323 million (range 295–360). The figure was largely neutral, showing modestly stronger disappearance during the summer but staying within pre-report expectations.

All wheat stocks totaled 2.12 billion bushels, topping the average trade estimate of 2.043 billion (range 1.954–2.135). Larger-than-expected inventories reflect both strong production and slower early-season demand, adding pressure to an already heavy global wheat outlook.

Market analysts said the bearish surprises in corn and wheat could weigh on futures, while soybeans offered little fresh direction.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
Related Stories
The newly elected Executive Vice President of the Tennessee Cattlemen’s Association (TCA), Dale Parker, joins us on-set to share his vision for his state’s cattle industry.
Despite the need for swift action, many ag lawmakers and industry groups argue that farm aid alone will likely not be sufficient to help farmers without improved trade relations with China.
SDRP Stage 2 now helps producers recover shallow, uninsured losses from major 2023–2024 disasters, with streamlined sign-ups open through April 30.
Tyson’s capacity cuts weaken local basis, tighten kill space, and heighten dependence on imports, signaling more volatility for producers.
Corn exports remain strong, while soybeans and wheat shift week to week on river conditions and global demand.
Tyson’s Nebraska plant closure and falling Cattle on Feed numbers send cattle markets tumbling. Analysts warn of tighter supplies, weak margins, and rising global competition.
A regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture, prepared by RFD-TV Markets Specialist Tony St. James, for the week of Monday, November 24, 2025.
Farmers with unpaid Hansen-Mueller grain should verify delivery records immediately and file indemnity claims quickly, as coverage rules differ sharply by state.
According to November’s Cattle on Feed Report, Nebraska now leads the nation in cattle feeding as tighter supplies continue to reshape regional market power and long-term price dynamics.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.
StockShowAuctions.com takes us to the Midland County Junior Livestock Show in West Texas, where young producers are showcasing their dedication, skill, and champion livestock.
Alissa White with American Farmland Trust joined us to provide insight into climate resilience efforts and strategies to help farmers manage weather-related risks.
University of Nebraska President Dr. Jeffrey Gold joined us to share practical health and safety guidance for managing respiratory and skin health during the winter season.
Roger McEowen with the Washburn University School of Law joined us to provide legal analysis on key cases shaping the agricultural landscape heading into the year ahead.
NASDA declared 2026 the International Year of the Woman Farmer. President Amanda Beal joins us to share NASDA’s new hub, which highlights the impact of women in agriculture worldwide.