USDA Grain Stocks Report Surprises Corn and Wheat

Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September 1 Grain Stocks report leaned bearish for corn and wheat, while soybeans landed close to expectations.

Old-crop corn stocks were reported at 1.532 billion bushels, well above the average trade estimate of 1.337 billion (range 1.26–1.45). The larger-than-expected figure suggests that feed and export use was softer than anticipated, resulting in more grain being stored as the new harvest advances.

Soybean stocks came in at 316 million bushels, only slightly under the average trade guess of 323 million (range 295–360). The figure was largely neutral, showing modestly stronger disappearance during the summer but staying within pre-report expectations.

All wheat stocks totaled 2.12 billion bushels, topping the average trade estimate of 2.043 billion (range 1.954–2.135). Larger-than-expected inventories reflect both strong production and slower early-season demand, adding pressure to an already heavy global wheat outlook.

Market analysts said the bearish surprises in corn and wheat could weigh on futures, while soybeans offered little fresh direction.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
Related Stories
Feed grain supplies may tighten in 2026/27, supporting higher corn and sorghum prices despite large crops.
USDA says federal biofuel policy and growing renewable diesel capacity are increasing demand for feedstocks.
USDA says growing soybean output and expanding biofuel demand are helping drive the increase.
Texas A&M economist John Robinson says speculative buying helped push ICE cotton futures sharply higher.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Senate Majority Leader John Thune says senators are trying to align the E15 effort with broader Farm Bill negotiations as producers continue grappling with weak farm income and elevated costs.
USDA says weather damage in key Robusta-growing regions is tightening supplies and lowering export expectations.
Industry leaders say restored access is a major step forward, though exports remain well below previous levels.
Changes to several Risk Management Agency programs are set to begin with the 2027 crop year.
For farmers, better data may not solve every local rail problem, but it can make service failures easier to document.
Smaller exporter crops and lower global stocks could keep wheat markets sensitive to weather, trade, and shifts in demand.