USDA Grain Stocks Report Surprises Corn and Wheat

Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September 1 Grain Stocks report leaned bearish for corn and wheat, while soybeans landed close to expectations.

Old-crop corn stocks were reported at 1.532 billion bushels, well above the average trade estimate of 1.337 billion (range 1.26–1.45). The larger-than-expected figure suggests that feed and export use was softer than anticipated, resulting in more grain being stored as the new harvest advances.

Soybean stocks came in at 316 million bushels, only slightly under the average trade guess of 323 million (range 295–360). The figure was largely neutral, showing modestly stronger disappearance during the summer but staying within pre-report expectations.

All wheat stocks totaled 2.12 billion bushels, topping the average trade estimate of 2.043 billion (range 1.954–2.135). Larger-than-expected inventories reflect both strong production and slower early-season demand, adding pressure to an already heavy global wheat outlook.

Market analysts said the bearish surprises in corn and wheat could weigh on futures, while soybeans offered little fresh direction.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
Related Stories
Strong balance sheets still matter, but liquidity, planning, and lender relationships are critical as ag credit tightens, according to analysis from AgAmerica Lending.
Protein-driven dairy growth is boosting beef supply potential, creating an opening to support rural jobs and ground beef availability.
U.S. agriculture entered the week with mixed signals as weather, logistics, and markets shaped early-year decisions. Here is a regional breakdown of domestic crop and livestock production for the week of Monday, Jan. 19, 2026.
While short-term volatility remains a risk, softer ocean freight rates in 2026 could improve export margins.
Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt fertilizer shipments, raising costs and creating uncertainty for U.S. farmers ahead of planting season.
APHIS Veterinary Medical Officer Dr. Chelsey Shiveley discusses USDA’s biosecurity resources available to poultry producers ahead of spring migration, increasing the risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) threatens commercial flocks.
This year at CattleCon 2026, RFD Network’s Kirbe Schnoor caught up with Donna Emick from Pneu-Dart to get her perspective on why education, safety, and accountability matter in the field.
President Trump issues a 60-day Jones Act waiver to ease fuel shipments amid Middle East tensions disrupting energy markets, while biofuel policy gains focus.
Acreage shifts could influence spring marketing decisions.
Corn and sorghum exports continue outperforming soybeans.