USDA’s WASDE will have initial analysis of Ukraine situation

USDA will release its monthly World Supply and Demand Forecast tomorrow. Many of you are wondering if it will include grain market repercussions, as a result of the war in Ukraine.

The department’s Outlook Board Chairman says that the numbers will show some of a reflection because we already have a good idea of how much grain is being stored in Ukraine.

According to Mark Jekanowski, “That grain is not flowing. The ports are closed. So, our analysts right now are putting together their best analyses to try to come up with some reasonable expectations for what that means for the supplies for the rest of the marketing year.”

He says that one of the key unknowns is if and when that grain is going to make it to the world market.

Moscow’s leading ag consultancy has dropped its marketing year forecast for wheat exports. The group reduced estimates by about a million tons, saying that the pace of exports will slow through April because of the war.

The entire Azov Sea, east of the Crimean Peninsula, is closed to shipping right now, but Moscow says that some of the grain can be moved by land.

The group expects exports to grow in May and June.


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