WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD News) — New crop estimates are just days away as USDA prepares to release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
Mark Jekanowski with USDA’s Outlook Board says recent weather patterns could factor into the latest data as crop conditions have started to decline.
“Crop conditions have been kind of starting to decrease, sliding a little bit lower this past week or two. That is gonna make this new data that we get for the September WASDE even more interesting, even more important to see if those latest objective yield surveys support this general view out in the market. The crop might not be quite as large as we expected earlier in the year, because of more recent weather patterns — hot and dry in the West, maybe some excessive rain in the East. We’ll see how all of that shakes out.”
The impact is already showing up in some crops. USDA meteorologists say July heat kept pressure on spring wheat, while drought took an even bigger toll on winter wheat. Economists believe states like Kansas are on track for the smallest winter wheat harvest since 1957.
Traders are now watching for changes to corn and soybean yield estimates, with private forecasts showing the possibility of a lower corn outlook while soybean yields remain unknown.
Farmers are also facing tight margins and high production costs. Analysts say even small changes to yield or ending stocks could influence grain prices and fall marketing decisions.
Weather remains a concern heading into the final stretch of the season. Crop Advisor Ty Shauck with BASF says the high temperatures seen in many areas this year can take a toll on crops.
“When we get into these really high temperatures, especially for extended periods of time, that high heat can cause stress to that plant, right? And whenever we get into those situations, that can kind of shut down overall vegetative growth and production of that plant. And anytime that happens, right, we’re not producing towards our potential yield. And it can cause cellular as well as leaf damage, which can leave that plant a little more vulnerable to pathogens or diseases coming in.”
While the season is nearly wrapped up, Shauck says scouting should continue until all crops have left the fields.
“Continue our scouting. Don’t extend those spray intervals too much at this point. Sometimes at this point in the season, we can see disease pressure reduce a little bit with the heat. But again, as we’re seeing some thunderstorms, we’re going to see increased humidity, which really just sets that environment up for new disease infections coming in, right? So, keeping on our spray programs, utilizing those strong fungicides to help finish out the season for the best quality crop we can produce.”
USDA reports 5 percent of the U.S. corn crop has been harvested across seven states, compared with the five-year average of 3 percent.
