We exported more wheat last year but at a lower value, according to economists

USDA data shows ag trade balance sheets are in the red with double-digit declines in the billions of dollars expected this year.

For wheat, economists explain that there is a unique situation happening.

“We see wheat exports rounded up to $2 billion, which is down 6% from the same period last year, whereas we’ve got a 6% increase by volume for last year, so we’re actually exporting more wheat, but at a lower price. So we’re seeing a negative value change over the last year,” said USDA economist Bart Kenner.

While the markets work to digest all the recent changes, some traders are following the numbers and they say they are showing a pattern.

Related Stories
Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
RFD News correspondent Frank McCaffrey reports from Texas on the ongoing water dispute and its implications for U.S. farmers.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney discusses the latest developments in the Supreme Court, trade tariffs, and the future of the USMCA under President Donald Trump.
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2026 agenda centers on labor stability, biosecurity, and economic resilience for family farms. Expanded DMC coverage improves risk protection for dairy operations facing tighter margins.
Freight volatility increasingly determines export margins, making logistics costs as important as price in marketing decisions.
China’s beef policy risk stems from domestic volatility, making export demand inherently unstable. Jake Charleston with Specialty Risk Insurance offers his perspective on cattle markets, risk management, and producer sentiment.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Jeramy Stephens of National Land Realty breaks down current trends in the farmland real estate market and how landowners should consider water availability and its impact on land values as they plan for the year ahead.
The Fort Worth Stock Show and Rodeo continues through Saturday, showcasing livestock, youth involvement, and agricultural talent, with the Junior Sale of Champions serving as the culmination of the 23-day event.
We caught up with John Deere’s Hay & Forage Got-To Market Manager Kaylene Ballesteros to learn how tech is evolving how producers make hay, from baling efficiency to operator confidence.
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas discusses expected changes to the 45Z tax credit and what they could mean for agriculture and rural America.
Purdue University Professor of Agricultural Economics Dr. Jim Mintert shares a closer look at farmer sentiment and the key issues shaping the agricultural economy in January.
Securing Critical Water Resources for South Texas Agriculture