We exported more wheat last year but at a lower value, according to economists

USDA data shows ag trade balance sheets are in the red with double-digit declines in the billions of dollars expected this year.

For wheat, economists explain that there is a unique situation happening.

“We see wheat exports rounded up to $2 billion, which is down 6% from the same period last year, whereas we’ve got a 6% increase by volume for last year, so we’re actually exporting more wheat, but at a lower price. So we’re seeing a negative value change over the last year,” said USDA economist Bart Kenner.

While the markets work to digest all the recent changes, some traders are following the numbers and they say they are showing a pattern.

Related Stories
Farmers for Free Trade Executive Director Brian Kuehl shares more about the tour to gather farmers’ insights on the economic challenges they face in the ag economy.
Wheat futures briefly hit a three-month high before retreating as the markets wait for word on whether the deal will actually happen.
According to Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, the top three soy-crushing companies in Bangladesh agreed to buy $1 billion worth of U.S. soybeans over the next year.
A strong corn export pull is supportive of bids; soybeans need steady vessel programs or fresh sales to firm cash.
An import lag for ground beef will likely look different than last year’s egg shortage. The difference comes down to biosecurity and market flexibility.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Alan Bjerga with the National Milk Producers Federation joined us to review new policies and regulations supporting the dairy industry and what they mean for the year ahead.
Despite rising costs and growing food insecurity, meat demand remained strong in 2025 as higher-income consumers offset cutbacks elsewhere. Economists break down the K-shaped economy, upcoming USDA cattle reports, livestock production outlooks, and renewed debate over beef imports and country-of-origin labeling heading into 2026.
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.
The Surface Transportation Board rejects the proposed Norfolk Southern–Union Pacific merger, prompting concerns from agricultural shippers about rail consolidation, service reliability, and higher transportation costs.
Midland County Livestock Association President Brandon Mitchell reflects on another strong year for the event, including a premium sale that once again topped the million-dollar mark.