NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production dipped during the week ending December 5, even as overall output remained above last year and recent historical averages. Renewable Fuels Association analysis of EIA data shows production eased 1.9 percent to 1.11 million barrels per day, though volumes stayed 2.5 percent higher than a year ago and 3.2 percent above the three-year average. The four-week average rose slightly, supporting an annualized pace of 17.05 billion gallons.
Stocks held steady at 22.5 million barrels, remaining below both year-ago and three-year benchmarks. Regional draws continued across most PADDs, except the Midwest, where inventories climbed to an 11-week high.
Gasoline supplied — a key indicator of implied demand — increased 1.6 percent to 8.46 million barrels per day, but still trailed last year and the three-year average. Refiner and blender net inputs fell to a 41-week low, reflecting softer near-term blending activity. Ethanol exports also pulled back sharply to an estimated 125,000 barrels per day.
Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026.
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Congressman Adrian Smith of Nebraska joined us with the latest on efforts to secure year-round E15 sales.
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Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.
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Ethanol and corn groups are not hiding their disappointment over new reports that the bill to allow year-round E15 sales failed as Congress forges ahead on government funding, with another shutdown looming.
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Oil-led rallies can move soybean prices quickly, but sustained gains will require continued strength in soybean oil and broader biofuel demand signals.
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