Weekly Ethanol Output Slips as Demand Remains Mixed

Ethanol output softened, but underlying supply-and-demand trends indicate stable longer-term use despite short-term volatility in blending and exports.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production dipped during the week ending December 5, even as overall output remained above last year and recent historical averages. Renewable Fuels Association analysis of EIA data shows production eased 1.9 percent to 1.11 million barrels per day, though volumes stayed 2.5 percent higher than a year ago and 3.2 percent above the three-year average. The four-week average rose slightly, supporting an annualized pace of 17.05 billion gallons.

Stocks held steady at 22.5 million barrels, remaining below both year-ago and three-year benchmarks. Regional draws continued across most PADDs, except the Midwest, where inventories climbed to an 11-week high.

Gasoline supplied — a key indicator of implied demand — increased 1.6 percent to 8.46 million barrels per day, but still trailed last year and the three-year average. Refiner and blender net inputs fell to a 41-week low, reflecting softer near-term blending activity. Ethanol exports also pulled back sharply to an estimated 125,000 barrels per day.

Related Stories
Market analyst and friend of the show, Shawn Hackett, says Brazil’s shifting use of crops for biofuel production is a significant factor.
Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the implications for farmers.
Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) shares his perspective on the U.S.-China trade developments and their potential impact on American producers, farmers, and ranchers.
Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Higher rail tariffs and tighter Canadian supplies will keep oat transportation costs firm into 2026.
Industry support ensures continued funding for mango marketing and research, helping sustain long-term demand growth.
Lower U.S. and Mexican production means tighter sugar supplies and greater reliance on imports headed into 2026.
Tyson’s closure reflects deep supply shortages in the U.S. cattle industry, tightening packing capacity, weakening competition, and signaling more volatility ahead for cow-calf producers and feedyards.
Lower tariff rates and new rail-service proposals may improve corn movement efficiency during early-season marketing.
Crop producers face tightening credit and lower incomes, while strong cattle markets continue to stabilize finances in livestock-heavy regions.