Soybean prices have been on a continuing decline for several months now, and an account executive for Bower Trading says the trend began in 2023.
“Ever since the end of October, first of November, right there before Thanksgiving, we’ve seen our highs, and we’ve been eroding ever since with a pretty favorable weather forecast. We had some issues, you know, early on in Mato Grosso, but southern parts of Brazil were catching rains, in Argentina, we were catching rains, and that just kind of continued. Then, export sales weren’t matching up with the USDA’s ideas, So we continue to ratchet the export ideas lower on monthly crop reports, and that’s kind of expanding the carryout,” said Ben Kasch.
While energy markets are also playing a factor in the price decline, Kasch says there is one factor that could turn things around at least in the short term.
“I think the weather. Weather issues, if we have some issues going into our growing season when getting the planters moving, I think that could be something that would spark some short covering from the funds and help kind of reverse things. I guess it wouldn’t be just us. Maybe if China has some issues getting in the field during their growing season too or adverse weather there, that could also kind of turn things around.”
Kasch also says South American weather could be a major factor on prices around U.S. spring planting season.
