While corn saw a big boost in this month’s WASDE report, soybeans are looking at the lowest acres in several years.
Market analyst Brian Hoops explains why.
“On the flip side, because we planted more corn acres, you had less soybean acres planted; the smallest soybean acres since 2019. Even though you had a new record yield for soybeans, the smaller harvested acres took away over 150 million bushels of supply, a pretty sizable amount, and we pushed sharply higher. Now the question is, where do we go from here?”
A social media post this week by President Trump sent waves through the soybean market. He urged China to return to the buying table, but it is a move many analysts feel is unlikely to happen.
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The government reopens after 43 days. USDA resumes key reports, weighs farm aid, and watches China’s next move on U.S. soybean purchases.
Friday’s release will be the first WASDE report in about two months, and early estimates indicate a corn surplus is still on the way.
A Reuters report shows China has a soybean “glut,” finding stockpiles at Chinese ports are at record levels, with crushers there holding the most supplies since 2017.
Export strength is concentrated in corn and wheat, while soybeans and sorghum lag, keeping basis and logistics dynamics highly commodity-specific into late fall.
David Klein with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA) shares an end-of-harvest update and a peek at the farmland market in Central Illinois.
According to Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, the top three soy-crushing companies in Bangladesh agreed to buy $1 billion worth of U.S. soybeans over the next year.
A strong corn export pull is supportive of bids; soybeans need steady vessel programs or fresh sales to firm cash.
China’s crusher losses and Brazil tensions, Gale warns, could reopen critical soybean trade channels for U.S. producers.
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
