The conflict between Israel and Iran could cost U.S. farmers when it comes to fertilizer orders. The situation has only added to recent challenges for global urea and nitrogen markets, resulting in higher prices.
Josh Linville with StoneX spoke with RFD-TV’s Jennifer Vickery Smith about the ripple effects he is seeing, current prices, and advice for producers.
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Only properly documented, unexhausted fertilizer applied by prior owners may qualify for Section 180 expensing; broader nutrient-based claims carry significant legal and tax risk.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
Recognizing phosphorus and potash as critical minerals underscores their importance in crop production and food security, providing producers with an added layer of risk protection.
Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Input costs are top of mind for farmers, as they contribute to higher prices and smaller profits.
“Farmers for Free Trade” warns that disaster is brewing as President Trump’s trade policy is causing farm input costs to rise even more.