AFBF Economist: E15 Expansion Could Strengthen Corn Demand and U.S. Energy Security

A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol’s role as a major market for corn and a key pillar of U.S. energy security is back in focus as policymakers debate nationwide, year-round E15 sales, according to analysis by Faith Parum, Ph.D., economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). With gasoline demand projected to decline over the next decade, expanding E15 access is emerging as one of the most important levers for protecting long-term ethanol demand — and the billions of bushels of corn tied to it.

Ethanol currently consumes about 5.6 billion bushels of corn annually, but blend rates have stalled near E10, and outdated summer volatility rules restrict E15 sales in many states. Even with EPA’s temporary summer waivers, the lack of a permanent policy creates uncertainty for retailers and slows investment in pumps, tanks, and signage needed to grow adoption.

For corn farmers, the stakes are large. Without higher blends, domestic ethanol use could fall by 400 million bushels over the next decade. By contrast, moving entirely to year-round E15 could require up to 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn each year—a transformational shift for rural economies and biofuel markets.

Regionally, more than 3,000 U.S. stations already offer E15, and major automakers approve it for modern vehicles. Consumers also benefit: E15 often costs 10–30 cents less per gallon and cuts tailpipe emissions by roughly 46%, strengthening both household budgets and environmental performance.

Farm-Level Takeaway: A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney recaps Farm Credit Canada’s trade forum, Canadian producer sentiment ahead of the USMCA review, and his outlook for U.S.-Canada trade relations.
Corn is the clear export leader heading into summer.
Farmers should watch for settlement notices and gather dealer repair invoices, proof of payment, and equipment identification records.
The U.S. Meat Export Federation says the agreement could be used to improve market access for American beef and pork producers in Africa.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Wheat Harvest Expands As Drought Still Pressures Pastures
CoBank economist Brian Earnest joins us to discuss the rapid growth of the meat snack category, shifting consumer protein demand, and how food companies are adapting to a changing retail landscape.
Texas Tech’s Dr. Jennifer Koziol discusses the latest New World screwworm cases in Texas, ongoing response efforts, and how livestock biosecurity can prevent the pest’s spread.
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney discusses the next generation of Canadian agricultural policy, producer priorities, concerns surrounding risk management programs, and what the framework could mean for agriculture on both sides of the border.
Corn ethanol demand and stronger oilseed processing continue supporting domestic markets for crop producers.
Farms should identify key roles and begin leadership succession planning well ahead of any transitions—expected or unexpected.