WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. pork production is expected to increase modestly in 2026, supported by strong domestic and export demand even as structural changes continue within the hog industry.
Total pork production is forecast at 27.975 billion pounds, up about 1.4% from 2025, driven by slightly higher slaughter numbers and heavier carcass weights. Hog inventories are also running slightly above year-ago levels, particularly in heavier-weight categories, indicating steady near-term supply.
Despite larger production, prices are holding firm. Hog prices are projected to average $69.13 per hundredweight in 2026, slightly higher than last year, supported by solid consumer demand and tight supplies of competing proteins like beef.
Longer-term structural shifts remain in play. The U.S. breeding herd has continued to decline, falling more than 9% since 2020, while productivity gains — including higher pigs per litter — are helping offset fewer sows.
Exports are also providing support. Pork shipments are forecast to reach 7.2 billion pounds in 2026, up more than 3%, with strong demand from Western Hemisphere markets leading the way.
The U.S. meat industry says we are starting to see the results of a renewed focus on international trade. The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) reports a major boost in global protein exports, which is encouraging since China is basically out of the equation.
“Well, I think if you look at the trend line in the last two or three months, take China out of the mix, and the rest of the world’s performing very well,” says USMEF president Dan Halstrom. “We’re up in value and volume. As I said, when you take out China, of course, we’re down with this China situation because of the year-on-year comparisons. No doubt, China remains our biggest focus to try to regain access, but we’re not sitting here waiting for China. We’re actively trying to get aggressive in some of these other countries. And, you know, the mainstay countries are showing a rebound, Korea and Japan, for example, but in Taiwan as well. So, the Asian countries are showing a rebound. And meanwhile, the momentum from late last year in the Latin American countries, specifically Central America, places like Colombia, continues to do well, so I think in general... The story hasn’t changed. Demand is solid globally.”
Halstrom says USMEF is shifting strategies, looking to newer regions to ensure long-term stability and expansion.
“Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China have a lot of similar products. And when China’s in the market, it raises all tides, right? So, it’s better to have more markets than less, but I think the overall strategy is no doubt diversifying,” Halstrom continued. “And if we get China back, great. That would be the optimal situation. But no doubt that strategically, we are looking as an industry to diversify in the sense of growing these markets, but also investing in some of these newer regions. And the Central American market stands out in that regard. Mexico, even, we don’t usually think of Mexico as an emerging market, but there are some things going on in Mexico in certain sectors that are new, so for U.S. beef. So, it’s exciting in that regard. I mean, and then, of course, regions like the African region, West Africa, South Africa, continue to show a lot of promise in the long term.”
Global markets will be a big topic at the federation’s spring conference next month. Halstrom says there will be a dedicated session on Central America’s growth potential for U.S. pork and beef.
