AFBF Economist: E15 Expansion Could Strengthen Corn Demand and U.S. Energy Security

A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol’s role as a major market for corn and a key pillar of U.S. energy security is back in focus as policymakers debate nationwide, year-round E15 sales, according to analysis by Faith Parum, Ph.D., economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). With gasoline demand projected to decline over the next decade, expanding E15 access is emerging as one of the most important levers for protecting long-term ethanol demand — and the billions of bushels of corn tied to it.

Ethanol currently consumes about 5.6 billion bushels of corn annually, but blend rates have stalled near E10, and outdated summer volatility rules restrict E15 sales in many states. Even with EPA’s temporary summer waivers, the lack of a permanent policy creates uncertainty for retailers and slows investment in pumps, tanks, and signage needed to grow adoption.

For corn farmers, the stakes are large. Without higher blends, domestic ethanol use could fall by 400 million bushels over the next decade. By contrast, moving entirely to year-round E15 could require up to 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn each year—a transformational shift for rural economies and biofuel markets.

Regionally, more than 3,000 U.S. stations already offer E15, and major automakers approve it for modern vehicles. Consumers also benefit: E15 often costs 10–30 cents less per gallon and cuts tailpipe emissions by roughly 46%, strengthening both household budgets and environmental performance.

Farm-Level Takeaway: A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Senate Majority Leader John Thune says senators are trying to align the E15 effort with broader Farm Bill negotiations as producers continue grappling with weak farm income and elevated costs.
Soybeans accounted for nearly half of the $15 billion in losses on U.S. ag exports to China due to tariffs, according to researchers at North Dakota State University.
Feed grain supplies may tighten in 2026/27, supporting higher corn and sorghum prices despite large crops.
USDA says federal biofuel policy and growing renewable diesel capacity are increasing demand for feedstocks.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Seasonal pricing strength is lining up with crop stress, giving wheat producers another weather-driven marketing window. Shaun Haney joins us to discuss concerns from ag bankers on farm profitability.
The spending bill keeps animal health and traceability funding in place while trimming several other USDA accounts.
Spring Fieldwork Advances As Weather Stays Uneven
March brought better prices for several commodities, but rising fuel and feed costs kept margins under pressure.
Farmers still earn only a small share of consumer food spending, even as post-farm costs continue to take most of the dollar.
Corn and cotton gave the strongest signals this week, while soybean demand remained softer than in the previous report.