AFBF: USDA Slashes 2025 Farm Income Outlook, Sets Baseline for ‘Significant Pressure’ into 2026

Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Net Farm Income Forecast since September, providing an early look at the financial conditions facing farmers in 2026. The report also includes revisions to USDA’s previous estimates for 2025, reshaping how last year’s farm economy is viewed and establishing a new baseline for the year ahead.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest forecast and what it signals for the broader farm economy.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Munch explained that the new outlook offers insight into how producers may fare financially in 2026, as income pressures continue across much of the agricultural sector.

The updated report also revises figures released last fall, and Munch highlighted how the new numbers differ from the September forecast. Those changes reflect shifts in commodity prices, production costs, and government payments that altered the final picture of farm income in 2025.

Munch addressed how rising farm debt and ongoing income declines are affecting farmers, and how producers are adjusting their operations and financial strategies to manage continued economic pressure.

Related Stories
“If this workforce gets even tighter and tighter, you know, it’s going to drive some folks out of production.”
“It really hamstrings our availability of financing to get loans when everything is costing 30-60% more.”

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

A slimmed-down Farm Bill is back on the table in Washington, with lawmakers pushing for a deal by Fall 2025. Sen. Jerry Moran of Kansas weighs in with his outlook.
Foreign trade partners, such as China and the European Union, are still purchasing U.S. commodities, but are becoming more cautious as the Trump Administration’s tariff deadline approaches in August.
Demand for farm loans surged in the first quarter of the year, topping the previous record set in 2016.
Congress is seeking insight from meteorologists and weather researchers on how new technology can enhance safety and response times to severe weather and prevent future disasters.
Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer says the labor program will now be fully under her department, and consolidation will make the program more affordable and efficient for farmers and ranchers.
FarmHER Kait Thornton joined us on Thursday on the Market Day Report to talk about the podcast episode, her family orchard’s 100th anniversary + more!