With the U.S. and China agreeing to a temporary pause on new tariffs, ag groups are monitoring the situation closely.
China remains a key market for U.S. products, like soybeans and pork, but China has recently shifted to buying from Brazil. Analysts note that while the 90-day pause may provide short-term stability, long-term market access remains uncertain.
Stakeholders are also watching for any purchase commitments as trade discussions continue.
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Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
Bangladesh recently pledged to purchase 700,000 tons of U.S. wheat and has also become a new buyer of American soybeans.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than usual this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
China still has a long way to go before it meets its commitment to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year.
Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
U.S. Trade officials announced new deals with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina, as well as a steep reduction in tariffs on Swiss imports.
China’s cost advantage with Brazilian soybeans and vague public messaging leave U.S. export prospects uncertain heading into winter.
With the U.S.–Vietnam agreement nearing signature, U.S. cotton, corn, and soybean exporters could lock in new demand lanes just as global supply shifts.
