Ag Trade Gap Widens: Deficit is now projected to reach almost $50 billion by end of the fiscal year

The ag trade deficit is projected to rise again this year. New numbers out this week show it has taken big leaps over the last couple of seasons.

USDA shows the ag trade deficit will land in the red at $49.5 billion for this fiscal year, which ends in September, and that is up from $49 billion projected back in February. Last year, the deficit was just shy of $32 billion, and it was $17 billion in 2023. In 2021, the ag trade deficit was just $2 billion.

The updates come as USDA lowered its forecast for exports of livestock products, canceling out increases in oilseeds and grains.

Before leaving her trade mission in Rome this week, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins took to X, commenting on those new numbers. She says the time has come to shrink that gap and open up new markets around the world. She adds that additional bilateral trade deals are on the horizon for U.S. row croppers. Secretary Rollins left Italy yesterday, but has plans for more trips to India, Vietnam, and Japan next month.

Related Stories
China may no longer serve as a consistent anchor market for U.S. cotton exports. Lewis Williamson of HTS Commodities joined us to discuss the factors influencing planting decisions, river conditions, and what producers are considering as they finalize acreage plans for the season.
High fertilizer costs and global risks threaten spring margins for growers.
Heightened Chinese inspections increase trade volatility for U.S. livestock exporters.
Rail logistics remain supportive, with access to Mexico improving
The closure of Lubbock Feeders highlights mounting pressure on the U.S. cattle supply, according to the Texas Cattle Feeders Association, as border restrictions and costs strain feedyards.
U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade faces uncertainty in 2026 as tariffs and cartel violence threaten farmers and ranchers. Congressman Henry Cuellar and Texas leaders weigh in on impacts and risks.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins surveys Nebraska wildfire damage as cattle losses, tight supplies, rising imports, and beef industry investigations impact U.S. markets. Roger McEowen outlines legal and tax considerations for ranchers recovering from wildfire damage.
Nebraska Cattle Rancher Joe Van Newkirk shares his firsthand insight on devastating wildfires in the Sandhills, discusses challenges facing ranchers, long-term calf health concerns, and the recovery efforts underway.
Nebraska Cattlemen’s Association President Craig Uden shares the latest on Nebraska wildfire conditions, discusses challenges facing producers, and outlines relief efforts underway.
As the strike at a JBS facility in Colorado continues, the National Right to Work Foundation is encouraging some employees to consider returning to work. The group says not all workers on strike may want to participate and urges those who choose to cross the picket line to resign from their union memberships.