Ag Trade Gap Widens: Deficit is now projected to reach almost $50 billion by end of the fiscal year

The ag trade deficit is projected to rise again this year. New numbers out this week show it has taken big leaps over the last couple of seasons.

USDA shows the ag trade deficit will land in the red at $49.5 billion for this fiscal year, which ends in September, and that is up from $49 billion projected back in February. Last year, the deficit was just shy of $32 billion, and it was $17 billion in 2023. In 2021, the ag trade deficit was just $2 billion.

The updates come as USDA lowered its forecast for exports of livestock products, canceling out increases in oilseeds and grains.

Before leaving her trade mission in Rome this week, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins took to X, commenting on those new numbers. She says the time has come to shrink that gap and open up new markets around the world. She adds that additional bilateral trade deals are on the horizon for U.S. row croppers. Secretary Rollins left Italy yesterday, but has plans for more trips to India, Vietnam, and Japan next month.

Related Stories
The Cotton-4 are pushing hard for new value chain investments. Still, many U.S. cotton producers face unsustainable losses, and weakened regional textile capacity threatens the survival of the Carolina “dirt-to-shirt” supply chain.
Despite the need for swift action, many ag lawmakers and industry groups argue that farm aid alone will likely not be sufficient to help farmers without improved trade relations with China.
Corn exports remain strong, while soybeans and wheat shift week to week on river conditions and global demand.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The Pennsylvania Farm Show continues through Saturday, wrapping up another successful year of celebrating agriculture in the Commonwealth.
Shaun Haney joined us to discuss Canada’s new trade agreement with China, the potential impact on farmers and exporters, and what it could mean for U.S.–Canada trade relations going forward.
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
The proposal signals a renewed push to offset tariff-driven losses, stabilize nutrition programs, and broaden eligibility for farm aid, though its path forward will depend on congressional negotiations.
The application deadline is March 8, 2026. The 1890 National Scholars Program aims to encourage students at 1890 land-grant universities to pursue careers in food, agriculture, and natural resource sciences.