Ag Trade Gap Widens: Deficit is now projected to reach almost $50 billion by end of the fiscal year

The ag trade deficit is projected to rise again this year. New numbers out this week show it has taken big leaps over the last couple of seasons.

USDA shows the ag trade deficit will land in the red at $49.5 billion for this fiscal year, which ends in September, and that is up from $49 billion projected back in February. Last year, the deficit was just shy of $32 billion, and it was $17 billion in 2023. In 2021, the ag trade deficit was just $2 billion.

The updates come as USDA lowered its forecast for exports of livestock products, canceling out increases in oilseeds and grains.

Before leaving her trade mission in Rome this week, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins took to X, commenting on those new numbers. She says the time has come to shrink that gap and open up new markets around the world. She adds that additional bilateral trade deals are on the horizon for U.S. row croppers. Secretary Rollins left Italy yesterday, but has plans for more trips to India, Vietnam, and Japan next month.

Related Stories
A SCOTUS ruling on Trump’s tariffs could have long-term implications on the authority of future administrations to control U.S. trade policy, according to RFD-TV legal expert Roger McEowen.
The Sheinbaum–Rollins meeting signals progress, but the focus remains on fully containing screwworm before cross-border movement resumes.
Livestock profits are propping up overall sentiment, but crop producers remain cautious amid tight margins and uncertain policy signals.
RaboResearch says China’s pivot from mass production to innovation-driven growth could reshape global pesticide supply chains — and influence prices and product access for U.S. farmers in the coming years.
Farmers for Free Trade Executive Director Brian Kuehl shares more about the tour to gather farmers’ insights on the economic challenges they face in the ag economy.
Wheat futures briefly hit a three-month high before retreating as the markets wait for word on whether the deal will actually happen.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

New World Screwworm cases in Mexico, including one within 200 miles of the U.S. border, are adding pressure to livestock markets and trade decisions.
Dr. Seth Meyer Concludes Service; Dr. Justin Benavidez Appointed USDA Chief Economist
USDA data indicates that 13.7 percent of U.S. households experienced food insecurity in 2024, the highest rate since 2014, even as most households remained food secure.
Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions
Cotton demand depends on demonstrating performance and reliability buyers can rely on, not messaging alone.
Read the full press release published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.