Analysts brace for potential wheat price fluctuations ahead of harvest

With the wheat harvest looming in about three months, market analysts are already strategizing amid uncertain price forecasts. While the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) won’t release detailed crop information until the May Crop Progress report, experts are preparing for possible downward trends.

According to Oklahoma State University analyst Kim Anderson in an interview with the Oklahoma Farm Report, wheat prices have historically averaged around $5.84 over the market’s past 15 years. However, market volatility saw its lowest point in July 2016, reaching its peak in 2022.

“Right now, we’re not expecting much movement in prices or changes, but I think the odds are that wheat prices are probably going to bottom out in the next couple of weeks and move higher,” Anderson remarked. “Corn prices, they’re relatively low. I’d say the odds are higher that they’ll go up than go down. It’s just a wait-and-see situation.”

The current state of the crop shows improvement compared to last year, which could lead to higher production and slightly lower prices. Nonetheless, Anderson emphasizes that market movements are unpredictable, with only time revealing the true trajectory.

DTN reports Russia’s influence in the wheat market is undeniable, with their dominance in world exports significantly impacting global prices. As they continue to hold sway over exports, the market braces for continued pressure on prices.